Post by Daniel (commish, agent) on Nov 12, 2023 20:25:45 GMT 1
There is no specific reason I'm posting this right now, apart from the obvious:
much more transparent to decide together now and live with the consequences, rather than surprising you in June.
I'll include some facts most of you know by heart, because I want to hear everybody's opinion.
Spoiler alert: I strongly believe how the is perceived by a newbie is in fact going to be one of the big factors here. Our survival depends mostly on future recruiting success.
What is the Owner Cap?
From the rules:
The NBA soft cap (as well as the apron hard cap) applies. On top of that, your team owner has limited pockets too, willing to only spend a given amount of luxury tax depending somewhat on the market size, but mostly on your on-court performance. Over the owner cap, no free agents can be signed with the exception of rookie scale contracts, MPE, SRE, and outgoing S&T. Every trade has to lower your total salary.
Basically, there are only two real-life concepts no sheet or Fantrax can simulate for us:
1. Players growing unhappy => that's why you see almost all our superstars resigning with their current teams ad infinitum if max money is on the table.
2. Owners not willing to spend $7 in tax for every $1 of actual salary => the Owner Cap to the rescue. For now.
How is the Owner Cap calculated?
A bit of market size, but mostly regular season wins in past seasons - the significance halves with each passing season.
See the OwnerCap sheet if you're open to mild brain damage.
What are our options?
A) All hail the new CBA with its second apron and whatnot. Abandon the Owner Cap!
B) Owner Cap stays, as we'd end up in trouble if we dropped it.
As I'm typing this, I don't actually even know my own vote. Let's dive in.
What are the obvious pros and cons of abandoning the Owner Cap?
Pro: You come here to master the dark corners of the CBA. You were promised no artificial rules. It's difficult enough to grasp as it is.
Con: You come here to fight for the . Then you visit the sheet. Then you immediately lose all hope.
(Which feeling is worse, dear newbies?)
Pro: We might not even get to fully experience those new CBA rules if every team has this sort of additional built-in spending ceiling. That would be a shame.
Con: NBAFO contender team building might become ridiculously lavish if most limitations are strictly financial. You'll just laugh in their face. (IMO freezing draft picks in distant future will not stop anybody from going for absolute domination today.)
Con: It's not realistic to have a team 100 million over the salary cap.
Pro: I cannot actually prove the above. Steve Ballmer is literally 100 times richer than the rest of them. He might just choose to keep setting money on fire.
What would happen in practice? Let's ponder.
I'll keep using the NBAFO example, partly as a tribute to Joni's team building genius, partly because I know he won't allow his ego to get in the way of nerdy objectivity, partly so that he can immediately correct the math if I'm terribly wrong.
They likely keep winning 76-78 games for a decade to come.
Assuming the usual 10% annual cap spike, their Owner Cap lands at $193m in 2024-25, and $212m in 2025-26.
The second apron lands at $201m in 2024-25, and $221m in 2025-26.
The Haliburton and Edwards extensions kick in at circa $40-45m each.
For the max squeeze, let's assume both make All-NBA => $45m.
Their spectacular core of 11 now earns circa $238m in 2024-25.
Owner Cap or no Owner Cap, they couldn't care less... yet.
Ok, no MLE and no Carter/DFS/Yurtseven s&t aren't ideal, but those rings shine so bright!
The 2032 pick becomes frozen.
2025-26 is when we'll notice the difference!
So they've been dominating for 3 seasons now.
(I'm counting the very unlucky 2023 Finals loss here.)
For reference, IMO this is roughly as long as any team has managed to remain on absolute top IRL in the XXI century.
Markkanen is UFA, Mitchell opts out. The core has shrunk to nine players, paid €201m.
If there is no Owner Cap:
Mitchell and Markkanen resign for the max, no debate.
The core is back to eleven players (all the way until they retire), paid almost €290m.
We keep freezing more and more picks, but this team wins so many rings Bill Russell gets nervous in his grave.
If Owner Cap remains:
Mitchell and Markkanen would walk.
Thus Joni probably trades them in February for a bunch of nice stuff, since the new CBA bans him from sign-and-trades.
Let's say each brings a good rotation guy on a longer deal and a couple of future picks.
Still a scary starting 5 of Haliburton - Edwards - J-Dub - Claxton - Embiid.
On the bench, the two contributors acquired via trade, plus one-two of those youngsters currently already on their bench.
It becomes more interesting, but if they're semi-healthy, I can't imagine any trouble.
2026-27 and beyond is there is no Owner Cap: the other 29 GM's commit group suicide, NBAFO shuts down.
2026-27 and beyond if Owner Cap remains: gotta trade Embiid before he opts out. Joni needs to remain pro-active for continued excellence.
I'm on the fence.
Started off optimistically wishing to simplify the rules, ended up scared by the teams you could build
The floor is yours.
much more transparent to decide together now and live with the consequences, rather than surprising you in June.
I'll include some facts most of you know by heart, because I want to hear everybody's opinion.
Spoiler alert: I strongly believe how the is perceived by a newbie is in fact going to be one of the big factors here. Our survival depends mostly on future recruiting success.
What is the Owner Cap?
From the rules:
The NBA soft cap (as well as the apron hard cap) applies. On top of that, your team owner has limited pockets too, willing to only spend a given amount of luxury tax depending somewhat on the market size, but mostly on your on-court performance. Over the owner cap, no free agents can be signed with the exception of rookie scale contracts, MPE, SRE, and outgoing S&T. Every trade has to lower your total salary.
Basically, there are only two real-life concepts no sheet or Fantrax can simulate for us:
1. Players growing unhappy => that's why you see almost all our superstars resigning with their current teams ad infinitum if max money is on the table.
2. Owners not willing to spend $7 in tax for every $1 of actual salary => the Owner Cap to the rescue. For now.
How is the Owner Cap calculated?
A bit of market size, but mostly regular season wins in past seasons - the significance halves with each passing season.
See the OwnerCap sheet if you're open to mild brain damage.
What are our options?
A) All hail the new CBA with its second apron and whatnot. Abandon the Owner Cap!
B) Owner Cap stays, as we'd end up in trouble if we dropped it.
As I'm typing this, I don't actually even know my own vote. Let's dive in.
What are the obvious pros and cons of abandoning the Owner Cap?
Pro: You come here to master the dark corners of the CBA. You were promised no artificial rules. It's difficult enough to grasp as it is.
Con: You come here to fight for the . Then you visit the sheet. Then you immediately lose all hope.
(Which feeling is worse, dear newbies?)
Pro: We might not even get to fully experience those new CBA rules if every team has this sort of additional built-in spending ceiling. That would be a shame.
Con: NBAFO contender team building might become ridiculously lavish if most limitations are strictly financial. You'll just laugh in their face. (IMO freezing draft picks in distant future will not stop anybody from going for absolute domination today.)
Con: It's not realistic to have a team 100 million over the salary cap.
Pro: I cannot actually prove the above. Steve Ballmer is literally 100 times richer than the rest of them. He might just choose to keep setting money on fire.
What would happen in practice? Let's ponder.
I'll keep using the NBAFO example, partly as a tribute to Joni's team building genius, partly because I know he won't allow his ego to get in the way of nerdy objectivity, partly so that he can immediately correct the math if I'm terribly wrong.
They likely keep winning 76-78 games for a decade to come.
Assuming the usual 10% annual cap spike, their Owner Cap lands at $193m in 2024-25, and $212m in 2025-26.
The second apron lands at $201m in 2024-25, and $221m in 2025-26.
The Haliburton and Edwards extensions kick in at circa $40-45m each.
For the max squeeze, let's assume both make All-NBA => $45m.
Their spectacular core of 11 now earns circa $238m in 2024-25.
Owner Cap or no Owner Cap, they couldn't care less... yet.
Ok, no MLE and no Carter/DFS/Yurtseven s&t aren't ideal, but those rings shine so bright!
The 2032 pick becomes frozen.
2025-26 is when we'll notice the difference!
So they've been dominating for 3 seasons now.
(I'm counting the very unlucky 2023 Finals loss here.)
For reference, IMO this is roughly as long as any team has managed to remain on absolute top IRL in the XXI century.
Markkanen is UFA, Mitchell opts out. The core has shrunk to nine players, paid €201m.
If there is no Owner Cap:
Mitchell and Markkanen resign for the max, no debate.
The core is back to eleven players (all the way until they retire), paid almost €290m.
We keep freezing more and more picks, but this team wins so many rings Bill Russell gets nervous in his grave.
If Owner Cap remains:
Mitchell and Markkanen would walk.
Thus Joni probably trades them in February for a bunch of nice stuff, since the new CBA bans him from sign-and-trades.
Let's say each brings a good rotation guy on a longer deal and a couple of future picks.
Still a scary starting 5 of Haliburton - Edwards - J-Dub - Claxton - Embiid.
On the bench, the two contributors acquired via trade, plus one-two of those youngsters currently already on their bench.
It becomes more interesting, but if they're semi-healthy, I can't imagine any trouble.
2026-27 and beyond is there is no Owner Cap: the other 29 GM's commit group suicide, NBAFO shuts down.
2026-27 and beyond if Owner Cap remains: gotta trade Embiid before he opts out. Joni needs to remain pro-active for continued excellence.
I'm on the fence.
Started off optimistically wishing to simplify the rules, ended up scared by the teams you could build
The floor is yours.